邓普顿投资备忘录(1945)之规划投资

09 Jun 2019

Content

原文: Memorandum to Clients 1945
译文
ChangeLog

计划你的交易, 交易你的计划. 计划你的投资, 投资你的计划. 有计划投资, 是不是能确保投资呢? 看看约翰邓普顿在他写给投资者的备忘录中如何说的.

原文: Memorandum to Clients 1945¹

It is a continual source of surprise to Mr. Vance, Mr. Dobbrow and me, when speaking for the first time with investors with whom we have not spoken before, that so very many people seem never to have thought out comprehensively the nature and problems of investment management. So many go along, year after year, in a haphazard manner, buying a stock now and then whenever some situation, which particularly strikes their fancy, is called to their attention.

普通投资者, 你有没有思考过投资管理的本质和问题呢? 你是不是也是随意买入一家公司的股票, 之后套牢, 失去耐心之后, 割肉离场呢? 可能在大盘涨的时候(水涨船高), 你也会有所收益. 但是不是大多数时候, 你的亏损大于收益呢? 你有思考过为什么么? 你是不是就是哪个随意的无计划的投资者?

In a steady or rising market, the haphazard investor usually obtains profitable results and is lulled into a false sense of security. Then along comes a decline like those which culminated in 1921, 1932, 1938, and 1942 and the good record is more than wiped out, because he had no plan for capturing and locking up the profits in the happy days.

In a rising market, inexperienced investors may obtain the best results, results far surpassing the averages, because they often select highly volatile stocks. As every analyst knows, the fastest rises are to be expected in low priced stocks, stocks of marginal companies, and stocks of companies having large debt and preferred claims. It only takes a few minutes to select a list of stocks which is sure to surpass the market averages, if the average rises. The catch is that, if the market declines, those same stocks are the ones which fall with disastrous acceleration. (注:The sensitivity of individual stocks to movements in the stock market averages is known in modern financial theory as beta. A stock with a beta of 0.5 is one that rises 5 percent when the market is up 10 percent, and falls by 5 percent when it is down by 10 percent. A stock with a beta of 1.5 is one that rises or falls by 15 percent for an equivalent 10 percent move in the stock market averages. The problem with betas is that they are based on historical performance and tend not to remain constant over time.)

水涨船高时, 不要被你的投资收益冲昏头脑, 以为你有多厉害. 如果大盘下跌, 到时能看看你的投资收益, 是不是就能明白这个潮水是有多厉害? 正如巴菲特所言: “The tide continues to be far more important than the swimmers.”

Many people act as if the selection of particular stocks and bonds is about all there is to the problem of conducting an investment program. Of course, the element of “selection” is important. A carefully thought out method for weeding out overvalued stocks and replacing them with undervalued stocks does produce profits. But the backbone of an investment program is the question of “when to buy” and “when to sell.” The first step in planning is to divide the stocks and equities on the one hand from the cash and bonds on the other. The second step is to think out and adhere to a program for shifting out of stocks when they are high and back into stocks when they are again quoted at bargain prices.

很多人认为挑选股票, 然后有盈利, 卖出就是投资的全部了吧. 为什么市场上还有那么多人亏损呢? 你有没有思考过?

计划投资的第一步是: 资金配置(股票证券类–债券现金类), 第二步是制定调仓计划, 高估时转出到债券现金类资产组, 低估时转入到股票证券类资产组.

你曾经有没有思考过资金配置与调仓计划呢?

The stock market always has been, and always will be, subject to wide degrees of fluctuations. When prices decline farther and farther, it is only natural human emotion to become cautious. Investors who have no prearranged plan to guide them not only fail to add to their stock holdings at the lower levels (sometimes because they have nothing left to buy with), but too frequently they add to the downward pressure by selling out part or all the stocks they own. Conversely, at other times, stock prices are pushed up far above real values by the understandable human tendency to buy when businessmen and friends are preponderantly prosperous and optimistic.

没有计划你的投资, 当你需要”子弹”的时候, 你没有”子弹”, 你如何是好呢? 过早卖出或全部卖出, 你有如何是好呢?

If an investor can sell out when the very top is reached and then buy back at the nadir of the subsequent stock market decline, he will indeed, grow rich quickly. But this can be done only by extraordinary luck. We have never found anyone who could forecast the rises and declines of the stock market correctly and consistently. Mr. Alfred Cowles recently completed a week-by-week study of the results which would have been obtained by following strictly the forecasting advice of eleven agencies which have published stock market trend forecasts throughout the 15 years from 1928 to 1943. He found that the forecasts were correct only 0.2 of 1 percent(0.2%) more than would be expected if the forecasts had been made just at random.

低买高卖, 说的容易做到难! 没有人能精确预测股市, 不要预测股市如何, 不要想着每一次都能精确地低买高卖.

If no one can forecast the stock market trend accurately and consistently, how then, it may be asked, can an investment plan include the important element of shifting the balance between stocks and bonds in the fund? In answer to that question, this company developed in 1938, and put into practice, certain principles which make use of the major market fluctuations without attempting to forecast. Subsequently, such principles have become known as the “Yale Plan” or the “Vassar Plan.” The successful results of these principles in the management of those two college endowments are available in published sources.

股债现金平衡:

In simplest terms, the “balance” of the investment fund is shifted gradually step-by-step away from stocks and into bonds when the stock market rises and then subsequently back from bonds into stocks when the market declines. The result is a moderate growth in the invested funds over each completed market cycle, without the need for any predictions of trends or turning points. An investment plan incorporating these principles assures you that you will be ready and able to buy stocks in periods of gloom when others are selling and that you will be selling when prices are reaching new high levels and optimism abounds.

股市低迷时, 人弃我取; 股市高潮阶段(价格远超过公司价值), 我弃人取.

Any sound long-range investment program requires patience and perseverance. Perhaps that is why so few investors follow any plan. Years may go by before the risks of haphazard stock purchasing are revealed by losses. And years may go by before experience proves the increased safety and enduring growth achieved by planning. Over a period of 20 years, however, it is not too much to expect that investment planning may cause the invested funds to double. (注: This is an interesting observation. Presumably he means that invested funds would be double what they would otherwise have been. For funds to double over 20 years implies a compound rate of growth of 3.5 percent per annum.)

计划需要时间, 投资需要耐心, 需要坚持.

译文²

从初次与未曾交谈过的投资者讨论起，万斯先生（Vance）、杜布劳先生（Dobbrow）和我就一直惊讶于有如此多人从未对投资管理的本质和问题有过大致了解。许多人年复一年随意地时不时地买入股票，其幻想不断遭受打击，这些人请注意。

在稳定或上升的市场中，随性的投资者通常能够获利，并对股票产生错误的认知。最后遇到像1921年、1932年、1938年和1942年达到顶峰后的衰退，当年的出色收益都清零，因为他们在行情好的时候没有计划捕捉并锁定利润。

(警惕: 归因错误)

在上升市中，没有经验的投资者也能取得远远超过平均的不错收益，因为他们常常选择高波动性的股票。正如每位分析师所知，低价股、小公司的股票和拥有大量负债和优先股的公司的股票最可能快速上涨。要挑出在大多数股票上涨时肯定能跑赢市场平均的股票只需要花费几分钟。但是如果市场下跌，这些股票也会经历重挫。(注: 个股对股市平均变动的敏感程度就是现代金融理论中的贝塔值。贝塔值为0.5的股票，能在市场上涨10%时增长5%，在市场下跌10%时跌5%。而贝塔值为1.5的股票，能在股市平均变动10个单位时相应变动15个单位。贝塔值的高低取决于股票的历史表现以及其趋势是否能在未来保持不变。)

许多人表现得好像认为挑选特定的股票和债券就是开展投资的全部。当然，“选股”很重要。制订滤除高估股并代之以低估股的周密计划确实能够创造利润。但是投资项目的基础在于“何时买”和“何时卖”的问题。规划投资的第一步是将资金分别配置到股票、证券一组；现金、债券另一组。第二步是制订并遵守一个移仓计划，在股票高估时转出股市，在股票相对便宜时加仓。

股市一直以来总是处于大幅波动中。当价格不断下跌，本性会让我们更加谨慎。没有事先计划指导的投资者不仅无法在低位加仓（有时是因为他们已无“弹”可用），还会常常因其部分或全部卖出股票而暴露于下行压力之下。相反地，在其他时候商人和朋友们压倒性的热情和乐观，股价被人们的购买欲推高至远离实际价值的高位。

如果投资者能在最高点卖出（做空），随后在市场下跌中全部买回，那么他一定能暴富。但是除非是极其幸运，否则不可能做到。我们从未找到一个能够持续正确地预测股市上升和下跌的人。阿尔弗雷德·考尔斯先生最近完成了对每周结果的研究，这些结果是通过跟踪11家发布股市趋势预测的机构1928～1943年15年内的预测建议所得。他发现，这些预测结果仅比随机预测结果精确0.2%。

人们可能会问：如果没有人能够持续、正确地预测股市趋势，那么投资计划怎样才能使基金所持有的股票和债券之间保持平衡呢？为了回答这一问题，公司在1938年设立并实际运用了一些可以在不做预测的基础上利用主要市场波动的原则。这些原则后来叫作“耶鲁计划”或“瓦萨尔计划”。媒体曾报导过这两所大学（耶鲁和瓦萨尔）捐款基金运用这些原则所取得的出色收益纪录。

简而言之，投资基金的“平衡”是在股市上涨时逐步将投资股票的资金转至债券，在市场下跌后再将债券中的资金转回股票。这样的结果是投资基金可以在每个完整的市场周期中获得温和的增长，而不需要预测市场趋势或是转折点。结合这些原则的投资计划将确保你能够在市场前景黯淡、人们都在抛出时买入股票，在市场不断创新高、人们过于乐观时卖出股票。

任何好的长期投资都需要耐心和坚持。也许这也是为什么只有极少数投资者能遵循计划的原因。可能需要许多年，随意买入股票的风险才会以亏损形式显露出来。也可能需要许多年，用经验来证明规划投资能带来更高的安全性和持续增长。但在20年里，期望规划投资带来100%的收益并不过分。(注: 这是个有趣的现象。可以假定他的意思是，投入资金能够翻番。初始投资若要在20年内翻番，必须每年增长3.5%。)