邓普顿投资备忘录(1948)之长期非预测投资
13 Jun 2019Content
短期内无人能预测市场, 在股市低迷时, 如何应对呢? 邓普顿在1948年12月21日的备忘录中谈论在股市下跌时, 坚持长期非预测投资对投资有益. 市场水平下跌时, 不用担心, 慢慢配置股市资金, 耐心等待.
The Best Thing That Could Happen
From: Memorandum to Clients September 21, 19481
The stock market went down yesterday. My friends in Wall Street are sad. I can understand their emotions; but it only illustrates again the fact that more and more investors should adopt and adhere to the long-range non-forecasting programs used by the clients of Templeton, Dobbrow & Vance, Inc. These programs are designed to profit from stock market cycles without the need for predicting such cycles.
在此前的备忘录中, 邓普顿就讲到短期内无法预测市场水平. 不去预测市场, 那么投资如何盈利呢? 邓普顿认为坚持he long-range non-forecasting programs(长期非预测的投资计划), 可以参考邓普顿投资备忘录(1954)之股价正常水平中的根据市场水平, 调整在股市内的资金.
For an investor following a program of this nature, as we have said before, the best thing which could happen is to have the stock market go down from today’s level of 177 to 128 before the next long bull market begins. An investor following an “average program” has 70 percent in common stocks today which will participate in the capital gains during the next bull market. However, if the market declines to 128 before the bull market begins, such an investor will have 100 percent in stocks with which to participate in future capital gains.
In other words, if a bull market begins now the investor will make a large profit; but if the market first declines to 128 before the bull market begins he will make an extra $19,000 approximately on each $100,000 involved in the program.(Notes: In fact, the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was to fall to a low of 163.8 in mid-June 1949, so was already close to its cyclical low.)
If the market continues to decline, the long-range programs will call for purchasing more stocks at successively low levels. Of course, if there were any way to know for sure that the stock market would decline to 128 we would wait until then to make any purchases. In fact, we would go further than that and sell out the stocks now held in order to repurchase at the bottom.
But the fact is that no one can possibly know for sure what the stock market will do. It is also possible that a long bull market may start immediately.(Notes: A long bull market was indeed set to start the following year and was to take the Dow Jones Industrial Average up to 560 at its next peak in 1956, or roughly three times the level at which it was trading at the time this memo was written.) If there were any way to know this for certain, we should immediately buy common stocks on margin at once. Here again, no one can possible by sure what the stock market will do. The prudent and conservative policy is to follow a long-range program designed to profit from stock market cycles without the need for predicting either the timing or extent of such cycles.
Because the stock market declined yesterday and is now 9 percent below its level three months ago, investors generally are unhappy. Even for those investors who have not yet adopted a long-range program this emotion is illogical, if such investors are still in the stage of accumulating their wealth. Low market prices work to the advantage of an investor who makes it a practice to reinvest dividends or an investor who makes annual savings from his business or salary.
市场下跌, 你是不是欢喜的呢? 我是欢喜的, 慢慢可以以低估价格买入股票, 配置股权资产, 这多好啊.
For more than two years stock prices have been remarkably low in relation to earnings. In fact, today stock prices are lower in relation to earnings than in any peacetime year as far back as records are available. This means simply that a person with new money to invest can obtain unusual bargains. [Authors’ Note: The Dow Jones Industrial Average in September 1948 traded in a narrow range between 178 and 185 and was not to start rising until June 1949, after which it rose by around 40 percent in the next two years.]
He can buy shares in some of America’s largest and soundest enterprises for less than five times current rate of earnings. If the current rate of earnings is maintained, the net worth of his shares plus the dividends received will cause the value of his investment to double in less than five years. Even if future earnings were only one-half of current earnings, his purchases would still represent attractive bargains.
这里指的是长期非预测的投资者, 不是中文翻译中的邓普顿.
This memorandum is not written merely to point out the silver lining of a cloud. It is intended as a part of the long educational program to persuade more and more investors to adopt sound and long-range investment programs.
坚持长投投资计划, 享受复利.
可能发生的最好之事2
股市昨日下跌了。我在华尔街的朋友们很悲伤。我可以理解他们的心情，但这只是再一次佐证了一个事实，即越来越多的投资者应该采用并遵守长期非预测的投资，就像Templeton,Dobbrow and Vance公司的客户们那样。这些投资项目是为了能在不预测市场周期的基础上赚取收益而设计的。
正如我们之前所说的那样，对于投资这种性质项目的投资者而言，可能发生的最好的事情就是像今天这样，在下一个漫长的牛市到来之前股市从177急跌到128。遵循“一般投资计划”的投资者，今天会有70%的份额投资于股市，以期在下一轮牛市中实现资本增值。但是，如果市场在下一轮牛市开始前跌到128点，这样的投资者将会增仓到100%的股票，以期未来的资本增值。
换言之，如果牛市现在开始，投资者会赚取丰厚的利润，暗示如果市场在牛市开始前下跌至128，那么每投资100000美元，他就能额外赚取19000美元。(12: 事实上，以道琼斯工业平均指数衡量，股市将于1949年6月中旬跌至163.8点的低点，因此已经接近其周期性低点。)
如果市场继续下跌，长期投资项目会要求在随后的低位不断买入股票。当然，如果有渠道能确知股市将下跌至128点，我们会等到那时再买入。而实际上，我们不仅会这样做，我们还会将现在持有的股票不断卖出，以便能在底部再悉数买入。
但事实是没有人可能确知市场会怎样表现。也有可能一轮大牛市立刻就会拉开。(13: 接下来的一年，一场漫长的牛市确实开始了，道琼斯工业平均指数将在1956年达到560点，大约是备忘录撰写时交易水平的三倍。)如果有渠道可以确知，我们会立刻借款买入。但是，没有人可能确知市场会这样表现。谨慎而传统的政策是遵循长期投资项目，以便在无须预测股市周期的长度和时机的基础上从周期中赚取利润。
因为股市昨日下跌，现在它比3个月前的水平低9%，投资者们通常不会开心。如果是处于其财富积累过程的投资者，甚至是对那些尚未采用长期投资项目的投资者而言，这样的情绪都是不合逻辑的。低市价对那些将股利再投资的人或从其经营所得、薪水中每年存钱的人有利。
就其盈利水平来看，股价在超过两年的时间内都显著偏低。实际上，如今的收益率比有纪录以来所有和平时期的水平都要低。这意味着：有新资金进行投资的投资者都可以买到异乎寻常的廉价股票。（作者注：1948年9月的道琼斯工业平均在178～185点内窄幅波动，到1949年6月方才开始上涨，在那之后两年累计增长约40%。）
他可以以不到5倍的市盈率买入全美最大最强的公司股票。如果保持这样的市盈率，其股份净值加上收到的分红可以在不到5年的时间内让其投资价值翻番。甚至如果未来市盈率只有如今的一半，他买入的股票仍算便宜的。
写这份备忘录不仅仅是为了指出乌云下的一丝希望。它也是长期教育计划的一部分，以鼓励越来越多的投资者采纳完善的长期投资项目。
总结
从邓普顿的备忘录中, 你是否可以看出长期非预测投资计划的益处, 它虽然不能保证你一定赚最多的钱, 起码长期非预测投资计划可以确保你不去预测股市, 在低估中慢慢买入便宜的股票, 耐心等待.
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@Jeremy Anifacc
2019-06-13
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