邓普顿投资备忘录(1954)之投资为自己加薪

14 Jun 2019

How to Increase Your Income from Investments
总结: 为自己加薪投资法
ChangeLog

在本份备忘录中, 邓普顿简述”为自己加薪”的明智投资法.

How to Increase Your Income from Investments¹

From: Memorandum to Clients February 15, 1954

Any good investment research man can prepare for you within a few minutes a well-diversified list of stocks yielding over 10 percent. On the basis of market prices on February 10th and the dividends paid in the last 12 months, Van Norman Company yields 10.5 percent, Moore-McCormack Lines 11 percent, Barker Brothers 11.7 percent, Pond Creek Pocahontas 11.9 percent, Butte Copper 12.3 percent, Nash-Kelvinator 12.8 percent, Pacific Tin 13.0 percent, Great Northern Iron Ore 13.0 percent, Inspiration Consolidated Copper 13.1 percent, and Roan Antelope Mines 15.6 percent. These are all well established corporations with shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

从上文看, 是不是根据市值股息率来买入公司股份呢? 邓普顿下面讲得是希望能获得更多的收益. 有什么比上面更明智的方法么?

This is an easy method for increasing your income from investments; but it is the worst of all methods. Stocks sell at low prices in relation to current dividends usually because there are good reasons for expecting that the dividend may be reduced. Investors selecting stocks with high current yield face not only the risk of reduced dividends but also the greater risk of capital losses.

为什么邓普顿说这是所有方法中最糟糕的, 依据是什么? 股票低价出售时, 是什么原因导致股价低的呢? 这是不是相对而言呢? 所有方法又有哪些? 对于不懂投资的人而言, 上面的方法又怎样呢?

邓普顿认为的更明智的方法是什么? 高(盈利)/(股价). 是不是就是低的(股价)/盈利(PE)? 不能仅仅看PE, 还要看公司盈利能力和公司分红是否会增加. 单看PE值是不明智的行为.

如果看盈利能力, 如果是PE+ROE(净资产收益率)是否可行呢?

低PE(盈利高股价低和股息增加)+高ROE(净资产和盈利都要不断增加, 盈利速度高于净资产增加速度, 有没有可能?), 这样是否可行? 你自己思考下.

1.Highest earnings / market price

(1) Select stocks with the highest earnings in relation to market price

A far wiser method for increasing your income is to select stocks with the highest earnings in relation to market price. This will usually mean that your stocks have good prospects for paying increased dividends rather than prospects for paying reduced dividends. Many good stocks can now be found whose annual earnings are more than 15 percent of the market price.

高 Annual Earnings/Market Price(PE的倒数) 的公司, 比如大于 15%(PE=6.67)? 先看ROE, 再看PE, 是否可行呢? 需要寻找那些长期高盈利(未来也如此高盈利)的公司, 而不是那些仅在一两年盈利高的公司.

Such earnings are partly reinvested by the company for the benefit of stockholders which, in turn, leads to still higher earnings per share in future years. Of course, in seeking such stocks you should skip those whose earnings are high for one or two years for abnormal reasons and search rather for those likely to have a high level of earnings for many years in the future.

2.Growth Stocks(Earn More, Increased Dividends in Future Years)

(2) Growth Stocks: 未来盈利多且不断增加, 分红不断增加的公司.

高 ROE
留存盈余再投资盈利增加净资产
促进盈利增加: 增加的净资产x高ROE = 高的盈利
促进分红增加

In the endeavor to increase your income, it is wise also to select growth stocks. Growth stocks are most likely to earn more and pay increased dividends in future years. Usually growth companies have a high rate of earnings in relation to net worth. By retaining a large share of its earnings each year a growth company may be able to double its net assets per share within a relatively few years; and this in turn may lead to increased earnings and dividends.

搭配下面的方法, 效果更佳. 😄

3.Investment Balance Plan

投资平衡计划(Investment Balance Plan): 资金在市场高位时调低股市资金(转移为债券或现金), 在市场低位时增加股市资金(比如债券或现金转移到股市).

Another sound method, with which our clients are thoroughly familiar, is to reduce the percentage held in common stocks when the stock market rises far above normal and then in turn to increase the percentage in common stocks when the stock market declines far below normal. At first thought it may seem strange to speak of increasing your income by taking part of your money out of common stocks (when stock prices are high) in order to create a reserve of top-grade bond which usually have low yields.

论储备金的重要

However, the importance of having a reserve and the use of such reserve to achieve an increase in income will become apparent the next time common stock prices are really low. Then the reserve can be used to purchase more common stocks at prices that are really low in relation to probable earnings and dividends of future years.

For example, let us assume that the stock of X company is paying, and will continue to pay, $1.50 annually in dividends. It may be possible at some time to sell such stock at $30, hold the proceeds temporarily in 3 percent bonds, and then within a few years use this reserve to repurchase at $20, three shares of the same stock for each two shares previously held. This method accomplishes no temporary increase in income with accompanying risk, but rather a solid and permanent increase of income in the long run.

4.Sell Overrated Stocks to Buy Underrated

(4) 持续警惕, 卖出高估的公司, 买入低估的公司

For the purpose of increasing your income, constant watchfulness is also important. Prices of common stocks fluctuate very widely. It is often possible to sell a stock whose price is too high in relation to value and use the proceeds for the purchase at the same time of another stock whose price is too low in relation to its value. Transactions which increase the intrinsic value of your list of investments usually lead to increases in income in the long run.

The Templeton, Dobbrow & Vance Model Fund which started September 30, 1943 can serve as an example of the increased income resulting from the methods mentioned briefly in the four preceding paragraphs. This fund started with a capital of exactly $100,000; and although it is only 68 percent invested in common stocks, it is now earning income at the rate of $11,213 annually, or 11.2 percent of cost. As one more example, consider the case of Mr. M. whose fund of $276,000 was first placed under our investment counsel management exactly 15 years ago. Although this fund is now only 57 percent invested in common stocks, the income is $30,780 annually, which is 10.9 percent of cost.

By using the methods mentioned above, you may increase your income on a sound and permanent basis. Also, these methods should increase both the safety and the capital growth of your investments.