邓普顿之道-给投资者的建议

15 Jun 2019

邓普顿投资格言
邓普顿投资行动精要
ChangeLog

邓普顿投资格言¹

For all long-term investors, there is only one objective—“maximum total real return after taxes.”
- 长期投资唯一目标: 最大化税后实际收益率
Achieving a good record takes much study and work, and is a lot harder than most people think.
- 优异投资收益需要大量的学习与努力, 比绝大部分人想象的要困难.
It is impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.
- 独立思考而不从众, 才可能获得卓越投资表现.
The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.
- 最悲观的时候就是最佳买入时机, 最乐观的时候就是最佳卖出时间.
- 在市场悲观时慢慢买入, 在市场乐观时慢慢卖出.
To put “Maxim 4” in somewhat different terms, in the stock market the only way to get a bargain is to buy what most investors are selling.
- 人弃我取
To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude, even while offering the greatest reward.
- 别人沮丧卖出时买入，别人贪婪买入时卖出, 这需要极强的毅力，即使在提供最大的回报时也是如此。
Bear markets have always been temporary. Share prices turn upward from one to twelve months before the bottom of the business cycle.
- 熊市永远是暂时的.
If a particular industry or type of security becomes popular with investors, that popularity will always prove temporary and, when lost, won’t return for many years.
- 如果特定行业或某种类型证券变得受大众青睐, 那么这种青睐程度将始终是暂时的, 而且在失去青睐后, 将会一蹶不振好多年.
In the long run, the stock market indexes fluctuate around the long-term upward trend of earnings per share.
- 长期来看, 股市市场指数围绕每股盈利的长期上升趋势线波动.
In free-enterprise nations, the earnings on stock market indexes fluctuate around the replacement book value of the shares of the index.
- 在自由企业国度, 股指的盈利围绕股指成分股的重置账面价值波动.
If you buy the same securities as other people, you will have the same results as other people.
- 从众, 只能获得与他人一样的投资收益.
The time to buy a stock is when the short-term owners have finished their selling, and the time to sell a stock is often when short-term owners have finished their buying.
- 短线投资者卖出后买入股票，在短线投资者买入后卖出。
Share prices fluctuate much more widely than values. Therefore, index funds will never produce the best total return performance.
- 股价波动元大于价值波动. 因此, 指数基金永远不会产生最佳的总投资回报表现.
Too many investors focus on “outlook” and “trend”. Therefore, more profit is made by focusing on value.
- 太多投资者关注”前景”和”趋势”. 因此聚焦价值获利更多.
If you search worldwide, you will find more bargains and better bargains than by studying only one nation. Also, you gain the safety of diversification.
- 全球寻找优质股, 比在单个国家能找到能多. 同时, 你能获得分散投资的安全性.
The fluctuation of share prices is roughly proportional to the square root of the price.
- 股价波动大致与价格的平方根成比例.
- 是否可以验证呢? 大概.
- 若不是靠波段盈利, 何必在意股价短期波动.
The time to sell an asset is when you have found a much better bargain to replace it.
- 找到更好的优质股时, 卖出原资产, 买入这优质股.
When any method for selecting stocks becomes popular, then switch to unpopular methods. As has been suggested in “Maxim 3,” too many investors can spoil any share-selection method or any market-timing formula.
- 某种选股方法流行, 请切换到受冷落的方法.
- 独立思考, 不要从众.
- 太多的投资者, 可能会破坏任何选股方法或市场择时公式.
Never adopt permanently any type of asset or any selection method. Try to stay flexible, open-minded, and skeptical. Long-term top results are achieved only by changing from popular to unpopular the types of securities you favor and your methods of selection.
- 永远不要永久选择某一类资产或某种选股方法.
- 尝试保持灵活, 思维开放, 怀疑.
- 长期最佳业绩只有通过从你喜欢的流行择股方法转移到不流行的方法.
The skill factor in selection is largest for the common-stock part of your investments.
- 选择的技能对普通股投资影响最大.
The best performance is produced by a person, not a committee.
- 最好的业绩由个人创造, 而非委员会.
If you begin with prayer, you can think more clearly and make fewer stupid mistakes.
- 如果你可以祷告起首, 你将会思考明晰并减少犯愚蠢错误.
- 因为邓普顿爵士是基督徒.

邓普顿投资行动精要

The essence of that approach was¹²:

to act on logic rather than emotion; 要依据逻辑行动，而非感情用事
to rely on quantitative rather than subjective analysis; 要依赖定量分析，而非主观感受
to think for himself and ignore what other investors were saying and doing 要独立思考，而无视其他投资者的言行
to approach the business of investment in a systematic way that reflected his own deep understanding of how the financial markets actually work 要根据其对金融市场运作的深刻理解，系统、有序地开展投资业务